Currently released so far... 5268 / 251,287
Articles
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Amsterdam
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lagos
Mission USNATO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Browse by tag
AF
ASEC
AR
AORC
AJ
AM
AMGT
AE
AU
AGMT
AG
AS
AFIN
APER
ABUD
ATRN
AL
AEMR
ACOA
AO
AX
AMED
ADCO
AODE
AFFAIRS
AC
ASIG
ABLD
AA
AFU
ASUP
AROC
ATFN
AVERY
APCS
AER
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AEC
APECO
CU
CO
CH
CDG
CIA
CACM
CDB
CI
CS
CVIS
CA
CBW
CASC
CD
CV
CMGT
CLINTON
CE
CJAN
CG
CF
CN
CAN
COUNTER
CIS
CM
CONDOLEEZZA
COE
CR
CY
CTM
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CPAS
CWC
CT
CKGR
CB
CACS
COM
CJUS
CARSON
CL
COUNTERTERRORISM
EG
ECON
ETTC
EFIN
EZ
ETRD
EUN
ELAB
EU
EINV
EAID
EMIN
ENRG
ECPS
EN
ER
ET
ES
EPET
EUC
EI
EAIR
EAGR
EIND
EWWT
ELTN
EREL
ECIN
EFIS
EINT
EC
ECONEFIN
ENVR
ECA
ELN
EFTA
EXTERNAL
EINVETC
ENIV
EINN
ENGR
EUR
ESA
ENERG
EK
ENGY
ETRO
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ENVI
ESENV
ELECTIONS
ECUN
EINVEFIN
ECIP
EINDETRD
IV
IR
IS
IZ
IAEA
IN
IT
ICTY
IQ
ICAO
INTERPOL
IPR
INRB
IRAJ
INRA
INRO
IO
IC
ID
IIP
ITPHUM
IWC
ISRAELI
IRAQI
ICRC
IMO
IF
ILC
IEFIN
INTELSAT
IL
IA
IBRD
IMF
INR
IRC
ITALY
ITALIAN
KGIC
KDEM
KTIP
KOMC
KNNP
KWBG
KU
KPAL
KGHG
KAWK
KISL
KPAO
KHLS
KSUM
KSPR
KJUS
KCRM
KGCC
KPIN
KDRG
KTFN
KG
KBIO
KHIV
KSCA
KN
KS
KCOR
KZ
KE
KFRD
KIPR
KPKO
KNUC
KMDR
KPLS
KOLY
KUNR
KIRF
KIRC
KACT
KRAD
KCOM
KMCA
KV
KHDP
KVPR
KDEV
KWMN
KMPI
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCFC
KTIA
KPRP
KAWC
KCIP
KCFE
KOCI
KTDB
KMRS
KLIG
KBCT
KICC
KGIT
KSTC
KPAK
KNEI
KSEP
KPOA
KFLU
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KO
KTER
KHUM
KRFD
KBTR
KDDG
KWWMN
KFLO
KSAF
KBTS
KPRV
KNPP
KNAR
KWMM
KERG
KFIN
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KTBT
KCRS
KRVC
KSTH
KREL
KNSD
KTEX
KPAI
KHSA
KR
KPWR
KWAC
KMIG
KSEC
KIFR
KDEMAF
MOPS
MARR
MNUC
MX
MASS
MCAP
MO
MIL
MTCRE
ML
MR
MZ
MPOS
MOPPS
MTCR
MAPP
MU
MY
MA
MG
MASC
MCC
MEPP
MK
MTRE
MP
MDC
MAR
MEPI
MRCRE
MI
MT
MQADHAFI
MD
MAPS
MUCN
MASSMNUC
MERCOSUR
MC
OVIP
OPDC
OPRC
OIIP
OFFICIALS
OSAC
OAS
OEXC
ODIP
OREP
OFDP
OTRA
OSCE
OPIC
OECD
OPCW
OSCI
OIE
OIC
OTR
OVP
PARM
PREL
PTER
PHUM
PGOV
PINR
PINS
PREF
PK
PE
PBTS
POGOV
PROP
PINL
PL
POL
PBIO
PSOE
PHSA
PKFK
PO
PGOF
PA
PARMS
PORG
PM
PMIL
PTERE
PF
PALESTINIAN
PY
PGGV
PNR
POV
PAK
PAO
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PRGOV
PNAT
PROV
PEL
PINF
PGOVE
POLINT
PRL
PRAM
PMAR
PGOVLO
PHUMBA
PHUS
PHUMPREL
POLITICS
PEPR
PSI
PINT
PU
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PECON
SOCI
SY
SENV
SA
SP
SNAR
SG
SCUL
SR
STEINBERG
SF
SW
SU
SL
SMIG
SO
SN
SHUM
SZ
SYR
ST
SANC
SC
SAN
SIPRS
SK
SH
SI
TS
TU
TX
TBIO
TW
TSPA
TH
TIP
TI
TRGY
TC
TR
TT
TERRORISM
TO
TFIN
TD
TSPL
TZ
TPHY
TK
TNGD
TINT
TRSY
TP
UK
UN
US
UNGA
UNSC
UNO
UNMIK
UV
UY
UP
UG
USEU
USUN
UZ
UNESCO
UE
UAE
UNEP
USTR
UNHCR
UNDP
UNHRC
USAID
UNCHS
UNAUS
UNCHC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 07REYKJAVIK139, ICELAND: GOVERNING COALITION NEEDS AN ELECTION-EVE MIRACLE
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #07REYKJAVIK139.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
07REYKJAVIK139 | 2007-05-11 17:05 | 2011-01-13 05:05 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Reykjavik |
VZCZCXRO2878
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHRK #0139/01 1311743
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111743Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3293
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 REYKJAVIK 000139
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IC
SUBJECT: ICELAND: GOVERNING COALITION NEEDS AN ELECTION-EVE MIRACLE
TO CONTINUE
Refs: A) Reykjavik 127
B) Reykjavik 125
C) Reykjavik 114
¶1. (U) Summary: In the final days before Iceland's May 12
parliamentary elections, highly volatile poll data has shown drastic
changes in party support. The Progressive Party is polling higher
than it has for months, while the Left Greens are losing the
momentum they had been gaining over the past year. The margins are
slim enough that the prospects for the current government's hold on
power vary from poll to poll. Prominent analysts have declared that
voters will essentially be putting the current government's economic
policies on trial. A plurality of voters would prefer to see the
same government on May 13, but popular distaste for the Progressives
stands a good chance of forcing PM Haarde's Independence Party into
coalition with the Social Democratic Alliance. End Summary.
¶2. (U) Gallup started releasing daily polling data on May 7 ahead
of the May 12 elections to the Althingi (parliament). The most
recent results (May 10) were as follows:
Percentage of voters expressing a preference (Gallup):
Independence (IP): 36
Social Democratic Alliance (SDA): 26
Left-Green (LG): 16
Progressive (PP): 14
Liberal (LP): 7
Iceland Movement (IM): 2
Undecided/no preference stated: 11 percent of respondents.
¶3. (U) Compared to Gallup and Frettabladid polling data two weeks
ago (Ref. A), the IP's support is dwindling somewhat, in keeping
with its history of scoring higher in the polls than on Election
Day. The PP is now rising faster than it has for months, polling at
14 percent, having gained about four percent in two weeks.
Historically, the PP, in contrast to the IP, always fares better in
elections than in opinion polls. Support for the Left-Greens, which
peaked several weeks ago, is now measuring 16 percent. This is
consistent with past pre-election indicators, where the LG tends to
steadily lose voter support shortly before elections. The SDA is
now winning back the support that it earlier lost to the Left
Greens, as more and more voters may be realizing that the Left
Greens would be an uneasy partner in a coalition government. In
contrast, voters may be catching on to the idea that the SDA's
center-left policy could be more amenable to the IP, were these two
parties to form a government.
¶4. (U) Both Independence and the Progressives are hoping that
voters' general happiness with their standard of living will
translate into support on election day. A May 7 Frettabladid poll
showed that more than one third of the electorate would like the
current coalition government to stay in power, which is an increase
of eight percent since late April. Other possible coalitions fared
considerably worse: twenty percent of voters prefer a
left-of-center government that would consist of the Social
Democratic Alliance and the Left Green Movement, while about 15
percent favor an IP-SDA government and approximately nine percent
fancy an IP-LG coalition.
¶5. (SBU) Comfort with the current coalition aside, two days away
from the elections, results differed from one poll to the next about
whether the current IP-PP government will lose or maintain its
majority. The most recent Gallup poll shows the current IP-PP
coalition with a slim one-seat majority, but polls by Frettabladid
and Bladid on May 10 and 11 both show the government losing its
majority. Prominent PP members, such as Foreign Minister Valgerdur
Sverrisdottir and Minister of Agriculture Gudni Agustsson, have said
that the party needs greater support in order to be able to stake a
claim to extend its partnership in the current coalition. Agustsson
stated that the party needs to get 17-20 percent for this to happen.
(Comment: This would be an amazing last-minute turnaround, even
for the Progressives.)
¶6. (U) As a result, a number of political observers and pundits now
predict an IP-SDA coalition. They think that in order for Icelandic
politics not to become stagnant a new coalition must take over the
reins. The PP's following has, moreover, dwindled to such an extent
that it would not have a legitimate place in government. The
observers also note that there are not as many ideological
differences between the IP and the SDA as there would be in an
Independence/Left-Greens coalition. An IP-SDA coalition would be a
robust one in parliament and reminiscent of the so-called
Resurrection Government (Vidreisnarstjorn)--that consisted of the IP
and the Social Democratic Party, one of the forerunners to the
SDA--and was in power from 1959-1971. The Resurrection Government
has, in fact, been called one of the two "islands of stability" in
Icelandic politics, the other one being the current IP-PP coalition
that has been in power since 1995.
REYKJAVIK 00000139 002 OF 002
¶7. (SBU) Comment: Voters are not awed by the ongoing election
campaign, which many characterize as lackluster. Environmental
protection has virtually disappeared from the campaign over the last
week continuing the trend since the March 31 Hafnarfjordur
referendum (Ref. A). A lack of disagreement on election issues in
general has enabled the IP and PP to champion the vibrant economy
and the high standard of living, which has been achieved under the
current coalition, without much resistance from the opposition. The
biggest problem for the Independence Party is that voters are tired
of the Progressives, who despite their late run but may not draw
enough support to keep the government in power. Absent a
Progressive miracle, Prime Minister Haarde (Independence) will be
searching for a new coalition partner come May 13. He may find that
the Social Democratic Alliance offers a smaller ideological gap to
bridge than his other potential partners. End Comment.
VAN VOORST