Currently released so far... 5268 / 251,287
Articles
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Amsterdam
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lagos
Mission USNATO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Browse by tag
AF
ASEC
AR
AORC
AJ
AM
AMGT
AE
AU
AGMT
AG
AS
AFIN
APER
ABUD
ATRN
AL
AEMR
ACOA
AO
AX
AMED
ADCO
AODE
AFFAIRS
AC
ASIG
ABLD
AA
AFU
ASUP
AROC
ATFN
AVERY
APCS
AER
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AEC
APECO
CU
CO
CH
CDG
CIA
CACM
CDB
CI
CS
CVIS
CA
CBW
CASC
CD
CV
CMGT
CLINTON
CE
CJAN
CG
CF
CN
CAN
COUNTER
CIS
CM
CONDOLEEZZA
COE
CR
CY
CTM
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CPAS
CWC
CT
CKGR
CB
CACS
COM
CJUS
CARSON
CL
COUNTERTERRORISM
EG
ECON
ETTC
EFIN
EZ
ETRD
EUN
ELAB
EU
EINV
EAID
EMIN
ENRG
ECPS
EN
ER
ET
ES
EPET
EUC
EI
EAIR
EAGR
EIND
EWWT
ELTN
EREL
ECIN
EFIS
EINT
EC
ECONEFIN
ENVR
ECA
ELN
EFTA
EXTERNAL
EINVETC
ENIV
EINN
ENGR
EUR
ESA
ENERG
EK
ENGY
ETRO
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ENVI
ESENV
ELECTIONS
ECUN
EINVEFIN
ECIP
EINDETRD
IV
IR
IS
IZ
IAEA
IN
IT
ICTY
IQ
ICAO
INTERPOL
IPR
INRB
IRAJ
INRA
INRO
IO
IC
ID
IIP
ITPHUM
IWC
ISRAELI
IRAQI
ICRC
IMO
IF
ILC
IEFIN
INTELSAT
IL
IA
IBRD
IMF
INR
IRC
ITALY
ITALIAN
KGIC
KDEM
KTIP
KOMC
KNNP
KWBG
KU
KPAL
KGHG
KAWK
KISL
KPAO
KHLS
KSUM
KSPR
KJUS
KCRM
KGCC
KPIN
KDRG
KTFN
KG
KBIO
KHIV
KSCA
KN
KS
KCOR
KZ
KE
KFRD
KIPR
KPKO
KNUC
KMDR
KPLS
KOLY
KUNR
KIRF
KIRC
KACT
KRAD
KCOM
KMCA
KV
KHDP
KVPR
KDEV
KWMN
KMPI
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCFC
KTIA
KPRP
KAWC
KCIP
KCFE
KOCI
KTDB
KMRS
KLIG
KBCT
KICC
KGIT
KSTC
KPAK
KNEI
KSEP
KPOA
KFLU
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KO
KTER
KHUM
KRFD
KBTR
KDDG
KWWMN
KFLO
KSAF
KBTS
KPRV
KNPP
KNAR
KWMM
KERG
KFIN
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KTBT
KCRS
KRVC
KSTH
KREL
KNSD
KTEX
KPAI
KHSA
KR
KPWR
KWAC
KMIG
KSEC
KIFR
KDEMAF
MOPS
MARR
MNUC
MX
MASS
MCAP
MO
MIL
MTCRE
ML
MR
MZ
MPOS
MOPPS
MTCR
MAPP
MU
MY
MA
MG
MASC
MCC
MEPP
MK
MTRE
MP
MDC
MAR
MEPI
MRCRE
MI
MT
MQADHAFI
MD
MAPS
MUCN
MASSMNUC
MERCOSUR
MC
OVIP
OPDC
OPRC
OIIP
OFFICIALS
OSAC
OAS
OEXC
ODIP
OREP
OFDP
OTRA
OSCE
OPIC
OECD
OPCW
OSCI
OIE
OIC
OTR
OVP
PARM
PREL
PTER
PHUM
PGOV
PINR
PINS
PREF
PK
PE
PBTS
POGOV
PROP
PINL
PL
POL
PBIO
PSOE
PHSA
PKFK
PO
PGOF
PA
PARMS
PORG
PM
PMIL
PTERE
PF
PALESTINIAN
PY
PGGV
PNR
POV
PAK
PAO
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PRGOV
PNAT
PROV
PEL
PINF
PGOVE
POLINT
PRL
PRAM
PMAR
PGOVLO
PHUMBA
PHUS
PHUMPREL
POLITICS
PEPR
PSI
PINT
PU
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PECON
SOCI
SY
SENV
SA
SP
SNAR
SG
SCUL
SR
STEINBERG
SF
SW
SU
SL
SMIG
SO
SN
SHUM
SZ
SYR
ST
SANC
SC
SAN
SIPRS
SK
SH
SI
TS
TU
TX
TBIO
TW
TSPA
TH
TIP
TI
TRGY
TC
TR
TT
TERRORISM
TO
TFIN
TD
TSPL
TZ
TPHY
TK
TNGD
TINT
TRSY
TP
UK
UN
US
UNGA
UNSC
UNO
UNMIK
UV
UY
UP
UG
USEU
USUN
UZ
UNESCO
UE
UAE
UNEP
USTR
UNHCR
UNDP
UNHRC
USAID
UNCHS
UNAUS
UNCHC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 09CAIRO2082, CENTRAL BANK OF EGYPT RELEASES CORE INFLATION INDEX
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09CAIRO2082.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09CAIRO2082 | 2009-11-03 09:09 | 2011-02-16 21:09 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Cairo |
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB
DE RUEHEG #2082/01 3070914
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 030914Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4059
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS CAIRO 002082
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EINV PGOV EG
SUBJECT: CENTRAL BANK OF EGYPT RELEASES CORE INFLATION INDEX
1.(U) Key Points: -- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) released its core inflation index on 25 October. -- Core inflation better reflects underlying inflation and is the statistic that the CBE uses in determining its monetary policy. -- The release of these statistics is a precondition for the CBE adopting a monetary policy of inflation targeting and an increase in trading that will let the market set rates on securities eventually allowing banks and other financial firms to offer long term debt instruments. ----------------------------------------- Core Inflation Index and Detailed Reports -----------------------------------------
2.(U) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) released its core Consumer Price Index (CPI) on 25 October. The CBE has looked at core inflation to direct its monetary policy for a few years, but it has now finalized its index and this is the first time the data has been made publicly available. Looking at core inflation instead of headline inflation allows the CBE to use interest rates to target underlying inflationary pressures and avoid overcorrecting for temporary spikes in prices.
3.The index derives from headline inflation but excludes items such as fruits and vegetables, whose prices are highly volatile because of weather conditions and supply disruptions, and goods for which the government regulates prices. By excluding those two categories, core CPI reflects underlying inflation better than headline inflation does.
4.(U) In September, Egypt's headline inflation was 10.8 percent year-on-year (y-o-y), while core inflation was 6.3 percent y-o-y. Core inflation in September was more than 4 percent lower than headline inflation, the largest difference since the beginning of recorded core inflation data in January 2005, according to the CBE,s new inflation report. This is mainly due to high and rising volatility in the prices of fruits and vegetables.
5.(U) The CBE began issuing monthly inflation reports full of detailed statistics and trends at the same time it unveiled its core index. --------------------------------------------- --------------- Insight into Inflation Dynamic and Monetary Policy Decisions --------------------------------------------- ---------------
6.(U) Investors have been asking for the CBE to publicly release its core inflation index for several years because it will help them anticipate CBE monetary policy changes, according to Simon Kitchen, Vice President of EFG-Hermes, a leading regional investment bank. The new index will also allow investors to more accurately forecast inflation trends and factor them into their investment decisions. -------------------- Criticism of Indexes --------------------
7.(U) Some press articles have criticized the new index as meaningless because it excludes almost 30% of commodities whose price increases are felt by most Egyptians. Some investors accuse the CBE of underestimating inflation levels by including the prices of goods kept low by the government in headline inflation in order to make the GOE look good. ---------------------------------- Baby Steps Towards Long-Term Goals ----------------------------------
8.(SBU) Improving inflation statistics is one of the CBE,s prerequisites for eventually adopting inflation targeting as the official monetary policy regime of the CBE. Other requirements include improved GDP growth statistics and reducing the government budget deficit to between 3-4% of GDP, according to Ramez. Ramez also told us that Egypt will need a more mature banking sector before the CBE can adopt an inflation targeting regime. At the moment, credit penetration in Egypt too low for interest rates changes to have significant or immediate effects on economic activity and inflation, according to the IMF.
9.(U) Iman Ismail, Managing Director of the Egyptian Mortgage Refinance Company, told us that this information is necessary for increased trading of fixed income securities. This information will allow investors to anticipate inflation E and interest rate changes and use this information in their investment decisions which might encourage them to trade more and use longer-term instruments. Currently, trading volume of fixed income securities is so low that investors have to rely on issue rates which do not necessarily reflect market conditions. If trading of securities of a variety of maturities increases, the trading will let the market set the securities, rates and ultimately result in a yield curve. This would allow banks and other financial firms to price and therefore widely offer long-term debt instruments, such as mortgages. ------- Comment -------
10.(SBU) The publication of the core inflation index is a welcome improvement in inflation statistics and transparency in monetary policy decisions. This is a good first step towards inflation targeting, but there is still a long way to go. The GOE is unlikely to undertake the unpopular reforms necessary to reduce the budget deficit to 3-4% before the 2011 presidential election. The Egyptian banking sector needs to increase its credit penetration and increase competition to reduce the spread between loan and deposit rates in order to improve the transmission of monetary policy changes to the economy.
11.(SBU) Despite the excitement over the new core inflation index, headline inflation remains the best inflation statistic to help gauge the average Egyptian,s quality of life because it accurately reflects the rising cost of living in Egypt. Scobey